It was only a year and a half ago when I was walking by a super crowded Louis Vuitton store and wondering, who are these people and where are they finding all this extra cash for thousand dollar purses all of a sudden?
I think we know the answer now… their homes (and maybe stocks). It was the best of times where your home value was going up and stock market was doing well. Refinancing lets all these people take cash out of their home which was worth so much. Money was limitless it seemed as the upward trend continued.
What are you going to do with all the money and money “you earned” in your home? Splurge on stuff for yourself! Flaunt your wealth!

Well, that was pre-credit-crunch era. These days, the opposite is happening. Home prices coming down. Stocks plunged. People’s “piggy bank” shrunk. And even though the 30 year fixed mortgage rate right now is historically low (Wells Fargo has it at 4.75% with 1 pt right now), this still doesn’t allow people to “cash out” unless they have a lot of equity built in to their house. Banks are getting stricter having learned a recent lesson in loose lending policies, and now taking the “fair market value” of the house, and then requiring you to have at least 25% down, before they let you lock in those juicy low rates. So all in all, most people can’t cash out, but might even have to put money in to lock in low rates.
And now with the economy where it is, people are worried about getting laid off. Stock markets going sideways and not rallying. Home prices flat or still declining. All making it harder for consumers to spend and part with their money.
So what does this all mean? There’s less money to spend.
When will it get better? When the factors above improve.
What does this mean for retailers? A tough time this holiday season and 2009. Look at the stock charts of some of the major retailers like Nordstrom (JWN), JC Penney (JCP), Liz Clairborne (LIZ). It’s painful, but probably already discounting a bad 1H09.
But we all are still wondering, when will things get good enough so consumers are spending like they used to? Even if housing bottoms in 3Q09 as experts like Jim Cramer predicts, how many more months before people can use their house as a piggy bank again? (or will they ever now with the tougher lending standards?) Maybe hope and pray the stock market would rally and that would help consumer confidence?